Sunday, May 3, 2015

Hezbollah is raising its head - Prof. Eyal Zisser



by Prof. Eyal Zisser

The first signs of change in Nasrallah's position became noticeable as early as three years ago, when he ordered the terrorist attack on Israeli tourists in Bulgaria. Over the past year, however, the writing on the wall has become abundantly clearer, illustrated by a series of attacks against Israeli forces along the border

When the Second Lebanon War ended, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah apologized to his Shiite constituency for dragging them into a war with Israel. 

"Had we known that the kidnapping of the soldiers would have led to this, we would definitely not have done it," he said at the time. "We did not think that the capture would lead to a war at this time and of this magnitude. You ask me if I had known on July 11 ... that the operation would lead to such a war, would I do it? I say no, absolutely not." Since then, he has held true to his apology and has stringently upheld the quiet along the border.

This is no longer the case. Over the past year a strategic shift has occurred along Israel's borders with Lebanon and Syria. This shift doesn't necessarily stem from a decision Nasrallah has made to go to war with Israel. Quite the opposite, it appears he still isn't interested in such a confrontation and would prefer to avoid it if possible. The essence of the change is that in contrast to the past nine years, Nasrallah is no longer deterred by the idea of war and is prepared to take risks that could drag him and Israel into a new conflagration. Thus, to paraphrase the comments he made after the Second Lebanon War, Nasrallah's message today is: Even if I know the steps I take could lead to war, I am prepared to take that risk and plunge the region into war.

It appears therefore that the passing years have dulled Nasrallah's memory to the point where he no longer remembers the ravages of the previous war, while perhaps also restoring his lost self-confidence. It is also possible that because of his weakness -- domestically, versus his political rivals in Lebanon and outside it, against the rebels in Syria, where he has been sucked into the quagmire of the bloody and yet undecided civil war -- he feels he must show more daring and abandon restraint, lest Israel interpret such restraint as weakness. Incidentally, the fact that Hezbollah is bogged down in the Syrian mud has not diminished its determination to confront Israel. Actually, the organization has attained invaluable operational experience and its fighters and commanders have gained confidence.

The first signs of change in Nasrallah's position became noticeable as early as three years ago, when he ordered the terrorist attack on Israeli tourists in Bulgaria. Over the past year, however, the writing on the wall has become abundantly clearer, illustrated by a series of attacks against Israeli forces along the border -- first with roadside bombs and then with short-range fire last January toward an IDF border patrol. Nasrallah took full responsibility, in no uncertain terms, for each of these attacks.

Over the past few weeks, events along the northern border indicated another escalation. Supposedly, there is no link between all these incidents, and yet the fact remains that in most of the cases the trail leads back to Hezbollah -- whether it was a weapons shipment earmarked for the group, reportedly bombed by the Israel Defense Forces on Syrian soil; or whether it was Syrian terrorists from the Druze villages along the border, killed while trying to infiltrate Israel -- either inspired or directly encouraged by Hezbollah. 

Moreover, throughout the years Hezbollah has refrained from retaliating to Israeli action taken inside Syria, employing an approach that it must focus itself in Lebanon and let the Syrian regime respond, if it wants to, against Israel. We can also assume that Hezbollah knew it would struggle to explain to the Lebanese people why they were being dragged into another fight with Israel on behalf of Bashar Assad. But this is no longer the reality. Hezbollah's increasing involvement in Syria has, in its view, obligated the organization to its fighters in Syria and to its weapons being moved from Syria to Lebanon -- and perhaps in the future to also defend Assad from Israel. The possible significance of this newfound commitment is that Hezbollah will retaliate to any Israeli action in the Syrian arena, something the organization has thus far refrained from and which would trigger a severe Israeli counter-response. Indeed, for its part Israel cannot allow Hezbollah to limit its freedom of action in the Syrian arena.

Hezbollah's increasing involvement in developments along the Israeli-Syrian border, along with its growing boldness against Israel, may be an indication that the countdown to the next round of fighting has already begun.


Prof. Eyal Zisser

Source: http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_opinion.php?id=12437

Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.

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